An Amazing Weekend of Derby Preps and World Cup Races

by Steve Davidowitz | Mar 24 2011

(Sunland Park, New Mexico) This Sunday there will be an $800,000 Grade 3 race at Sunland Park, a low profile track that spawned Mine That Bird's shocking upset in the 2009 Kentucky Derby – the Sunland Derby.

Even though it is not the richest Derby prep this weekend (not by a longshot) it is that short term history that makes the Sunland Derby one of the more intriguing preps for this year's Run for the Roses at Churchill Downs on May 7.

The Sunland Derby actually ranks third of five, behind the $2 million  United Arab Emirates Derby in Dubai and the $1 million G-2 Louisiana Derby at the Fair Grounds; and above the two Derby preps at Turfway Park -- the G-3 $500,000 Vinery-Spiral Stakes and the ungraded $100,000 Rushaway Stakes.

While the UAE Derby is as rich as the Kentucky Derby, it has never produced a serious contender for America’s most famous race. It is, in fact, only one of seven rich Thoroughbred stakes on the annual late March Dubai racing card that will offer $26 million in purses -- including the world’s richest race, the $10 million Dubai World Cup.

Among the races to be beamed back to America during the morning hours on Saturday is a pair of $5 million turf races, another turf event for $3 million, a $2 million mile, and a $2 million sprint race dominated by American horses since its inception in 1996 -- the $2 million Golden Shaheen at 6 furlongs.

The Godolphin Mile, the 6 furlong Golden Shaheen and the Dubai World Cup at 10 furlongs will be run on the synthetic Tapeta surface, installed at Meydan in 2010 and developed by the British born, American based horseman Michael Dickinson.

Back here in America, the focus for the rest of the weekend will be on the prep races for the Kentucky Derby. Here is a quick look at the principal contenders expected to go in those events, plus a few horses to watch in two of the rich races in Dubai:

1-1/8 MILE LOUISIANA DERBY (SATURDAY, MAR 26):

The marquee horse is MUCHO MACHO MAN, who will try to replicate his smooth win in the Risen Star Stakes over this track on Feb. 19. A new shooter worth watching is ELITE ALEX, who was scratched from the $300,000 Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park last Saturday when trainer Tim Ritchey did not like post 12 in the 13 horse Rebel field. Ironically, Elite Alex drew post 12 of 13 for this Saturday's race in New Orleans! Nevertheless, Ritchey hopes the long Fair Grounds'stretch---nearly 200 feet longer than Oaklawn's 1190 ft. homestretch---will mute the post position issue.

Two other Louisiana Derby colts -- MACHEN and WILKINSON -- also deserve some attention. Both flashed considerable promise in early season races over the FG track and are trained by highly respected Neil Howard.

1-1/8 MILE VINERY-SPIRAL STAKES (SATURDAY, MAR 26):

The Vinery-Spiral Stakes is set to run on Turfway's synthetic Polytrack surface and has no throwouts, although the probable favorite is expected to be the Northern California based gelding POSITIVE RESPONSE, who won a prep for this race on this track on Mar. 5 by seven lengths.

Two others likely to attract betting support are THIRTYFIRSTSTREET and ANIMAL KINGDOM. The former, trained by Doug O’Neill, was fourth in a Southern California stakes last month. The latter, owned by the shrewd Team Valor stable, is a lightly raced winner of a 1-1/8 mile race at Keeneland's Polytrack last fall.

1-1/16 MILE RUSHAWAY (SATURDAY, MAR 26):

While this race usually attracts less accomplished 3-year-olds, the Rushaway sometimes identifies a horse better than the Spiral. The eight horse lineup includes Team Valor's CRIMSON CHINA, a European import who has won two route races — one on Polytrack last fall in England and one turf at Gulfstream last month. Another shipper who might beat the six locally based contenders in this field is SWIFT WARRIOR, a Florida shipper with an improving late kick.

1-1/8 MILE SUNLAND DERBY (SUNDAY, MAR 27):

Perhaps the strongest field ever for the Sunland Derby, trainer Bob Baffert has shipped in SANAI, who was fifth to Baffert's highly regarded THE FACTOR in the 7 furlong San Vicente on Feb. 20; while Steve Asmussen has shipped in ASTROLOGY, second in the G-2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at Churchill last fall. Asmussen already has local stakes winner FUSA CODE in the 12 horse field that includes promising shippers from New York, California, Pennsylvania, Arkansas, Kentucky, and Arizona.

6 FURLONG GOLDEN SHAHEEN (SUNDAY, MAR 27):

Over in Dubai, KINSALE KING will attempt a repeat in the 6 furlong Golden Shaheen, while the Baffert trained EUROEARS, a fast 7-year-old on the comeback trail, may be the one to beat.

10 FURLONG DUBAI WORLD CUP (SUNDAY, MAR 27):

In the featured $10 million Dubai World Cup at 10 furlongs, the two-time American Turf Champion, GIO PONTI, will try for an upset over a solid lineup of world class contenders -- including TWICE OVER, who was a good third to ZENYATTA in the 2009 Breeders'Cup Classic at Santa Anita and subsequently has won several major stakes in Europe.

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Please Note: Steve Davidowitz will host a handicapping seminar at Sunland Park on Sunday, Mar. 27 at 11:00 AM. Steve’s website (www.GradeOneRacing.com) also has valuable handicapping information on all the Derby prep races set to take place this weekend.

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