Animal Kingdom Has Chance to Go All The Way
by Steve Davidowitz | May 12 2011
When Animal Kingdom won the Kentucky Derby on Saturday, May 7 at 21-1- odds, many horseplayers and professional pundits probably dismissed him as a serious threat to sweep the American Triple Crown.
Not so fast, folks.
We are looking at a very lightly raced colt, a versatile, improving colt with only five lifetime starts, with victories on three different types of racing surfaces, turf, synthetic and now dirt.
Dirt of course was the surface that he handled beautifully while winning the Derby and it will be the surface at Pimlico for the 1-3/16 mile Preakness Stakes on May 21 and the 1-1/2 mile Belmont Stakes on June 11.
As a son of the outstanding turf miler, LEROIDESANIMAUX out of a stoutly bred German mare, it was no surprise to see this colt win the Spiral Stakes on the Polytrack at Turfway Park, but it wasn't until he worked superbly on dirt at Churchill Downs April 30 that he gained credibility as a legit Kentucky Derby contender.
Fact is, that six furlong workout in 1:13 flat was extremely sharp, as shouted to the world by my clocker Bruno DeJulio in his daily workout notes on my web site, GradeOneRacing.com.
"Animal Kingdom began three lengths behind workmate Meistersinger. He went in 12.4, 24.4, 37.1. Splits of 49.1, and 113.1. Finished final quarter in 24 flat! Galloped out in 126.1 and 141.1. HUGE WORK. Big, big gallop out. He is one horse that needs to be FOLLOWED for sure."
Given the questionable health of UNCLE MO that led to his removal from the field the day before the Derby and given the troubling inside post assigned to one of the leading contenders – ARCHARCHARCH – as well as earlier defections by THE FACTOR, TO HONOR AND SERVE and PREMIER PEGASUS from the Derby, the 21- 1 odds on Animal Kingdom was a crazy price being offered to the record Derby Day crowd of over 164,000 and to the millions more who bet the race at various racetracks, simulcast centers and websites – most notably the Bodog Racebook.
Hope you got some!
If not, fear not... There may be more opportunities as the general public probably does not yet believe that we are looking at a serious racehorse that is capable of breaking the long drought since AFFIRMED became the 11TH horse to sweep the coveted Triple Crown in 1978.
While I am not saying flat out that Animal Kingdom will complete the rare, historic sweep, his realistic chances go beyond the simple fact that he is the only horse left among this year's 3-year-olds with a chance.
The Team Valor homebred has been expertly trained by Graham Motion, a world class horseman who has trained many lightly raced thoroughbreds to new levels of performance as they matured and stretched in distances.
Although Animal Kingdom's Derby victory only earned a relatively low 103 Beyer Speed Figure, there was a lot more to his performance for us to digest.
First of all, the pace was extremely slow in the Derby -- a half mile in 48.63 and six furlongs in a tepid 1:13.40. When we see a slow pace like that in a Graded stakes race, we usually see horses close to it dominate the results.
While second place finisher NEHRO, a confirmed stretch runner was wisely sent to a contending position on the backstretch by jockey Corey Nakatani and the speed horse SHACKLEFORD opened up on the field after he set the pace for nearly nine furlongs, neither Nehro or Shackleford were any match for Animal Kingdom's impressive surge from more than 10 lengths back to a decisive 2-13/4 lengths victory.
MUCHO MACHO MAN, reserved somewhat off the dawdling pace, did rally a bit for third, but he too was no match for Animal Kingdom once jockey John R. Velazquez moved Animal Kingdom into the clear rounding the final turn to fire his Derby bid.
"He is a lot better horse than I knew about," Velazquez said after he rode his first Derby victory in place of injured Robbie Albarado. "They will have to run pretty good to beat him at Pimlico."
Of the top four, Nehro will miss the Preakness on May 21, while 5-1 Derby favorite DIALED IN will also be there.
Dialed In did rally from last to eighth and his trainer was encouraged more than most by the effort. "Actually, [Dialed In] came home faster than the winner, which means a lot," said Hall of Fame trainer Nick Zito. "He was just too far back. You can't do it that way."
Zito, widely known as a 'Derby Ace', also has a Preakness victory -- Louis Quatorze in '96, plus other in the money finishes in the middle jewel of racing's Triple Crown. And he will bring to Baltimore a horse with more talent than we saw in Louisville, plus an intriguing added incentive.
By winning the Holy Bull Stakes and the Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park this winter, Zito's horse now is eligible for a newly created $5.5 million bonus if he should also win the Preakness. With that, it is conceivable that Dialed In's relatively modest performance in the Derby may have served effectively as a mere prep for his possible Preakness payday.
Certainly, no one should think that Zito did not care about winning the Derby, but Dialed In does stand in the way of Animal Kingdom's Triple Crown bid, just as the Derby winner stands in the way of Dialed In and the richest single payday in American racing history.
In addition to the first, third, fourth and eighth place finishers in the Derby moving on to the Preakness, 16th place finisher MIDNIGHT INTERLUDE might be sent to Baltimore by trainer bob Baffert, pending a weekend workout. Pimlico officials also say there probably will be 12-13 Preakness starters. A maximum of 14 are allowed.
The others under strong consideration include ASTROLOGY, second in the recent Jerome Mile at Belmont; CONCEALED IDENTITY winner of the un-Graded Frederico Tesio Stakes at Pimlico last Saturday; DANCE CITY an aggressive third to Archarcharch in the Arkansas Derby on April 16; FLASHPOINT fourth in the nine furlong Florida Derby; KING CONGIE third by a nose and a head in the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland on April 16; MR. COMMONS, third in the Santa Anita Derby on April 9; NORMAN ASBJORNSON, fourth in the Wood Memorial, and SWAY AWAY, an aggressive fourth in the Arkansas Derby.
Sway Away in fact, should command considerable interest having been excluded from the Kentucky Derby by the Graded Stakes earnings rule despite having trained as well as Animal Kingdom for the Derby.
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