Arkansas Derby vs. the Blue Grass Stakes

by Steve Davidowitz | Apr 15 2011

The countdown to Kentucky Derby 137 continues with two Derby prep races on tap for Saturday, April 16: the Arkansas Derby and the Blue Grass Stakes.

The $1 million Arkansas Derby will be run on traditional dirt at Oaklawn Park, while the $750,000 Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland will be run on a synthetic Polytrack surface that could make the results completely irrelevant.

The strong field for the Arkansas Derby includes THE FACTOR, the lightning fast winner of his last three races, including the 1-1/16 mile Rebel Stakes on Mar. 19. Moreover, there are several horses in the race who finished behind The Factor, plus others shipping in from Louisiana who need to win or run second to make it into the Derby starting field.

The $750,000 Blue Grass Stakes, which, for most of its history, was the single most important Kentucky Derby prep race on the national calendar, has had a spotty record as a Derby indicator since STRIKE THE GOLD won the Blue Grass and Kentucky Derby in 1991. Fact is, no horse since Strike the Gold has won the Blue Grass and the Kentucky Derby; while only STREET SENSE, a champion 2-year-old in 2006, used his sharp second place finish in the 2007 Blue Grass as a launching pad to the Derby winner's circle.

From 1992 through 2006, the Keeneland racing surface was a one dimensional speed highway, favorable to front running types. Unfortunately, front running Blue Grass Stakes winners did not carry their winning form into their next starts over the deeper dirt racing surface at Churchill Downs.

In 2006, Keeneland switched to the synthetic Polytrack racing surface (because Keeneland is part owner of the company that manufactures Polytrack) and aside from Street Sense, nothing worth worrying about in Louisville on the first Saturday in May has come out of the Blue Grass Stakes.

In this year's Blue Grass, the field includes three longshots trained by Todd Pletcher -- QUEEN'SPLATEKITTEN, SENSATIONAL SAM  and PRAETERO – although none have won a Graded stakes this year. Each horse needs to win the Blue Grass to get into the 20 horse Derby field.

Pletcher, who won the Kentucky Derby with SUPER SAVER last year, also has won two of the last five runnings of the Blue Grass with BANDINI in 2005 and the equally forgettable MONBA in 2009.

Frankly, the Blue Grass field for 2011 has drawn a field that hypothetically would not give Bandini or Monba much trouble.

The lukewarm pre-race 3-1 favorite is SANTIVA, a Graded stakes winner in 2010 who began 2011 with a fair second to MUCHO MACHO MAN in the Risen Star Stakes at the Fair Grounds in February. He will be joined by WILKINSON, winner of the Grade-3 LeComte  at the Fair Grounds in January; CRIMSON CHINA, a strong finishing second in the Rushaway on the Polytrack at Turfway Park on Mar. 26; TWINSPIRED, third in the G-3 Spiral Stakes at Turfway; KING CONGIE, winner over BRILLIANT SPEED, in a turf stakes at GP; JOE'S BLAZING AARON, who defeated Queen'splatekitten and another Blue Grass starter -- NEWSDAD -- in the G-3 Palm Beach on the turf at GP.

While all of these horses are eligible to improve (and many seem well bred for Polytrack), horseplayers will be left to guesswork when the leading Blue Grass performers go in the Kentucky Derby.

In the Arkansas Derby, The Factor will try to do what he did in the Rebel: take the lead from the start and improve his position to the wire. Should he win his second straight Graded route stakes, The Factor will go to Louisville as the likely morning line favorite for America's most famous race.

Should he falter or be overtaken, the horses who perform well in this important Kentucky Derby prep will command plenty of attention on May 7 at Churchill Downs. Some need to earn first place money of $600,000, or second ($200,000) to get into the Derby field.

The long list of potential Arkansas Derby contenders includes: NEHRO and ELITE ALEX, who finished second and third in the G-2 Louisiana Derby on Mar. 26; Graded stakes winner BRETHREN, a half brother to Super Saver; ALTERNATION, who threw a fit in the starting gate and was scratched from the Rebel to await this spot, and his stablemate, CALEB'S POSSE, a distant second in the Rebel;  SWAY AWAY, who lost a tooth leaving the starting gate in the Rebel and has trained superbly since; ARCHARACHARCH, winner of the local Southwest Stakes, was third in the Rebel and JP's GUSTO, a winner of Graded stakes in Southern California last year, was fifth in the Rebel and is expected to show more speed in this race.

For those needing a brief refresher course, where the Blue Grass has slipped in importance, the Arkansas Derby has become the most prolific prep race for success in contemporary Triple Crown racing.

Consider:
PINE BLUFF won the Arkansas Derby and the 1992 Preakness; BLUMIN AFFAIR was second in this race in '93 and third in the Kentucky Derby; VICTORY GALLOP  won this race in '98, was second in both the Derby and Preakness, before he won the Belmont Stakes; IMPEACHMENT  was third in 2000 and third in that year's Kentucky Derby; SMARTY JONES won this race in 2004 and also took the Kentucky Derby and Preakness; AFLEET ALEX won in 2005, was third in the Kentucky Derby, won the Preakness and Belmont Stakes. CURLIN won in 2007, was third in the Derby, won the Preakness and was second in the Belmont, while Super Saver was second here in 2010 and parlayed that into his upset victory at Churchill Downs.
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