Belmont Stakes Odds: Derby Winner Animal Kingdom vs. Preakness Winner Shackleford

by Steve Davidowitz | Jun 9 2011

A deep field of 12 horses will compete in the 143rd running of the Belmont Stakes on Saturday. But, the focus of most horseplayers will be on 2011 Kentucky Derby winner ANIMAL KINGDOM and 2011 Preakness winner SHACKLEFORD.

This will be the 22nd time in racing history that the Derby winner will meet the Preakness winner in this 1-1/2 mile conclusion to the prestigious American Triple Crown.

The scoreboard through the last time it happened in 2005, shows five Belmont Stakes races have been won by the Derby winner and 10 have been won by the Preakness Stakes winner. The other six Belmont races that featured winners of the first two Triple Crown races were won by horses who did not race in the Derby or Preakness, or jumped up to win the Belmont after a defeat in either or both races.
 
Obviously, this weekend's Belmont Stakes will serve as a ‘rubber match' with championship possibilities.

Should Animal Kingdom win or should the verdict go to Shackleford, the winner will gain a solid, if not insurmountable lead in the season long battle for an Eclipse Award as the top 3 year old in America. Of course, should the recovering UNCLE MO or any other horse emerge during the summer and fall as a world beater, than all bets are off.

The Belmont Stakes, also known by its nickname as the "Test of the Champion," really only lives up to that billing when a Derby-Preakness winner comes to New York seeking to complete the elusive sweep of the Triple Crown. In that case the Derby-Preakness winner is in fact given a final test – The Test of the (prospective) Champion.

Trying to maintain superiority at the 1-1/2 mile Belmont distances made even tougher after two hard races at two different classic distances at two different tracks on the first and third Saturdays in May. Moreover, the Belmont is the longest race any 3 year old has yet run and probably will be the longest race any of them ever will attempt.

"Get past this hurdle and you will deserve to be called a true champion," the Belmont Stakes would scream out if it had a voice.

When no Triple Crown sweep is at stake, it usually is hard to get the key horses that dominated the Derby and Preakness to run in the Belmont. But that is not true this year.

This year, we have both the Derby winner ANIMAL KINGDOM and the Preakness winner SHACKLEFORD in the Belmont and that is not all. We actually have eight Derby horses coming back to compete in the Belmont and that includes the top seven finishers, an unprecedented representation.

What also makes this Belmont so intriguing is that the vast majority of the horses in the 1-1/2 mile race are bred strongly to handle this difficult distance. Moreover, most seem to be coming up to the race with very few negative signs to indicate a sudden fall off in their respective form.

Animal Kingdom, who has earned more than $1.9 million, will be making his third start on dirt in the Belmont, having won the Derby by 2 ¾ lengths at odds of 20-1 under jockey John Velazquez, and having finished second by a half-length to Shackleford in the Preakness on May 21.

At Pimlico, the son of the high class grass specialist Leroidesanimaux out of the German bred mare Dalicia, broke slowly and spent the first part of the race in tandem with slow breaking DIALED IN, getting clods of dirt kicked in his face for the first time in his career.

"I've never had a horse come back from a race with so much dirt caked in his blinkers," said trainer Graham Motion. "Belmont Park is different; I don't think he's going to have to deal with that on Saturday.

In the Derby, front-running Shackleford set a leisurely pace through the first mile, and actually opened up a four length lead between calls in the upper stretch, only to weaken in the final furlong to finish fourth, behind Animal Kingdom, NEHRO and MUCHO MACHO MAN.

In the Preakness, Shackleford almost went down to his nose at the break, raced outside of front running FLASHPOINT, took over from that distance challenged rival on the final turn and had enough left to hold off Animal Kingdom's late rally. Fact is, Animal Kingdom never caught Shackelford in the gallop out.

In the Belmont, Shackleford will break from the outside post in the 12 horse field and might be forced to use a bit of his natural speed to take control of the pace.

 "In a 1 ½ mile race like the Belmont," trainer Dale Romans said, "post position isn't that important… With the 12, he'll be the last one in the gate and the first one out; he's fast enough that he'll break and clear everyone anyway."

In addition to the winners of the Derby and Preakness, plus Nehro and Mucho Macho Man whose Derby performances give them Belmont stakes credibility, the key upset threats on Saturday figure to be the three horses who finished lapped on each other after making similar rallies at Churchill Downs.

Fifth place finisher MASTER OF HOUNDS, sixth place finisher SANTIVA and seventh place finisher BRILLIANT SPEED. Not only did these three rally through or around traffic in the Derby, but they are bred strongly to relish the extra distance of this race.

 Master of Hounds, a stoutly bred son of Kingmambo, has  been training "very, very well since the Derby," according to T.J. Comerford, top assistant to Irish based trainer Aidan O'Brien.

"Remember," Comerford added, "he'd never actually run on the dirt before he cantered around at Churchill Downs. He ran well there and we think he'll definitely put up a good show here. The 1 ½ miles hits him in the head."

Santiva, a son of Giant's Causeway, was gaining ground when sixth in the Derby and also skipped the Preakness to point for the Belmont. Trained by Eddie Kenneally, Santiva will be making his fourth start of the year, having finished second to Mucho Macho Man in the Risen Star at the Fair Grounds in February for his best effort prior to the Derby.

"He likes to just sit off the pace," Kenneally said. "We think he fits in well with these horses."

Blue Grass Stakes winner Brilliant Speed was very wide when he fired a late bid in the Derby to finish seventh, beaten two noses for fifth..

"He's fresh and he runs well fresh," said trainer Tom Albertrani. "We're enthusiastic about bringing him here for a 1 ½ mile race, considering his pedigree, and we thought we'd give it a shot with him on the dirt. There's always a question how he'll handle the surface, but I'm pretty optimistic."

Also coming back from the Derby is 12th place finisher STAY THIRSTY, winner of the Grade 3 Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct, but a disappointment in the Florida Derby and Kentucky Derby.
 
"Stay Thirsty obviously likes New York, he's got two wins and two seconds in this state," said owner Mike Repole, noting that Stay Thirsty won a maiden race at Saratoga last summer and followed that with a second place finish in the in the Grade 1 Hopeful.

Among the new shooters in the Belmont are PRIME CUT, third in the Grade 2 Peter Pan at Belmont Park on May 14; MONZON, sixth in the Peter Pan; plus RULER ON ICE, who was third in the Sunland Derby and second in the Frederico Tesio at Pimlico, May 7.

Completing the field is ISN'T HE PERFECT, who was ninth in the Preakness and probably will be the longest price in the field.  As such, a finish in the top half of the field would be a plus.

The Belmont is scheduled for 6:35 PM Eastern Time, as the 11th race on a stakes filled Belmont racing card of 13 races that is the best overall card to date at any track in the country.

Belmont Stakes TV coverage will begin on NBC at 5:00 PM Eastern Time, with additional coverage on the VERSUS Cable Network from 3-5:00 PM and after the race at 7:00 PM.

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