Betting on the Kentucky Derby

by Bodog Racebook | Apr 25 2011

With 20 contenders to choose from, betting on the Kentucky Derby can be a daunting process. Here's a look at who's hot and who's not leading up to the first Saturday in May.

Who's Hot

In this year's run-up to the Kentucky Derby, favorites have fallen with each prep race – either to poor performances or injury. But Archarcharch has been consistent all year, going 4-2-0-1 in 2011 and earning $785,000. Trained by William Fires for Robert and Loval Yagos, Archarcharch began his 3-year-old campaign in the Smarty Jones Stakes, a foggy 1-mile dirt test at Oaklawn Park on Jan. 17 that resulted in a fourth-place finish. In his next outing on Feb. 21, this son of Arch scored his first graded stakes win in the Gr. 3 Southwest Stakes at 1 mile – though his Beyer Speed Figure was a mediocre 89. He faced a much faster field in the 1 1/16 mile Gr. 2 Rebel Stakes on March 19 and hit the wire in third. His biggest win of the year so far came next in the 1 1/8 mile Arkansas Derby, a grade 1 race on April 16. He not only earned a 98 Beyer Speed Figure, but he defeated a number of Kentucky Derby rivals in the process, including Nehro, The Factor and J P's Gusto. Distance, track surface and running style should not be an issue come May 7. Archarcharch will be ridden by regular rider Jon Court in the Kentucky Derby.

Other hot prospects: Pants on Fire (winner of the Louisiana Derby) and Dialed In (winner of the Florida Derby).

Who's Not

At the end of 2010, following a dominating 4 ¼ length win in the Gr. 1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile, all eyes were on Uncle Mo. He seemed invincible – especially with a 14 ¼ length maiden victory and a 4 ¾ length win in the Grade 1 Champagne Stakes already on his resume. But questions were raised following a decision to run him in the ungraded Timely Writer Stakes at Gulfstream Park March 12 against a lower level of competition – though he won the race by 3 ¾ lengths, could he win against other top 3-year-olds? Expectations were therefore high for his next prep – the 1 1/8 mile Gr. 1 Wood Memorial on April 9 at Aqueduct. The race began well for this Indian Charlie colt – he was ahead going into the stretch by 1 ½ lengths. But the Todd Pletcher trainee ran out of steam by the finish, ending up a disappointing third. Post-race, Uncle Mo was diagnosed with a gastrointestinal infection, which may explain the race result – but questions remain as to whether he can fully recover in time to deliver a winning Kentucky Derby performance.

Others in this category: The Factor (earned a 103 Beyer Speed Figure in the Rebel Stakes but was soundly defeated in the Arkansas Derby) and Animal Kingdom (lackluster recent work at Keeneland).

Are you ready to bet on the Kentucky Derby? Get in on all the horse racing action with the Bodog Racebook!