Facts and Thoughts About the 2011 Belmont Stakes
by Steve Davidowitz | Jun 16 2011
With RULER ON ICE’S longshot victory over longshot STAY THIRSTY in the 143rd running of the Belmont Stakes on Saturday, we can only wonder what might have been if Kentucky Derby winner ANIMAL KINGDOM did not lose all chance after getting bumped badly at the start to lose several lengths and nearly his jockey as well.
How John Velazquez stayed aboard after the bump he got from MUCHO MACHO MAN (that was caused by ISN’T HE PERFECT’s, initial move inward) was an acrobatic act worthy of Cirque de Soleil.
First Velazquez had his foot dislodged from his left iron and then was forced awkwardly over to the right shoulder of his mount before regaining his balance. Velazquez did not get his foot back in the stirrup until ‘AK’ was about five lengths behind the next to last horse in the field approaching the clubhouse turn. How Animal Kingdom rallied from dead last to pass eight horses in a blur on the sweeping final turn on a rain soaked, sealed racing strip, clearly demonstrated that he was fit enough to win this important race. But, it was not to be.
Beyond going into minute details of the race, suffice to say that the Belmont racing surface favored speed all day. Indeed, the top two finishers stalked front running SHACKLEFORD, who ran his race, but simply found the 1-1/2 mile distance a few furlongs too far.
Only Animal Kingdom, who understandably tired from his gallant effort to finish sixth and third place finisher BRILLIANT SPEED managed to close significant ground while off the early pace out in the middle of the track. Not many other horses in any other dirt race all day were able to produce an effective rally, which is something to remember when horses who ran at Belmont on June 11 come back to run again.
Here are some of a few assorted facts and thoughts about the 2011 Belmont and the horses who competed in the Triple Crown series.
* Ruler On Ice was the 10th different horse to win a Triple Crown race since BIG BROWN won the Derby and Preakness in 2008. He also was the 16th different horse to win a Triple Crown race in the past 18 runnings of the Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont Stakes dating back through 2006.
* Although John Velazquez had previously won the 2007 Belmont aboard the filly RAGS TO RICHES, his winning ride aboard Animal Kingdom in this year’s Kentucky Derby, along with Jesus Castanon’s winning ride in the Preakness aboard Shackleford, and Jose Valdivia Jr’s win aboard Ruler on Ice, completed a rare sweep of first time winning riders in their respective Triple Crown races.
* Attendance at Belmont on a rainy, windy unseasonably cool Saturday was more than 55,000, a 20 percent increase over last year. Likewise the national TV ratings were the highest in a several years for this Belmont, despite the absence of a horse trying to complete a sweep of the historic three race series.
* The 33 year Triple Crown drought since 1978, when AFFIRMED won all three races over his ultra tough archrival ALYDAR, is the longest in Triple Crown history. The previous longest stretch was 25 years: CITATION in 1948 to SECRETARIAT in 1973.
* With Ruler on Ice’s score at 24-1, we have not seen a betting favorite win the Belmont since AFLEET ALEX won this race by seven lengths in 2005.
* The 2:30.88 clocking for this Belmont was slow, but not as slow as DROSSELMEYER’S 2:31.57 last year on a fast track; or COMMENDABLE’S 2:31.19 clocking in 2000, or THUNDER GULCH’s 2:32.00 in 1995; or HIGH ECHELON’s 2:34.00 in the mud in 1970. Those are the five slowest Belmonts at 1-1/2 miles in the past 78 years. (According to various sources, a slower racing surface was in play at Belmont prior to 1934 and most Belmonts were clocked in 2:32 or slower. It also is true that the Belmont was run at four different distances--- 1-1/8 miles; 1-1/4; 1-3/8 and 1-1/2 miles through its first 58 years.
* Looking objectively at the performances of the key contenders in all three Triple Crown races, Animal Kingdom is the slight leader of the 3 year old division, with the Haskell Invitational at Monmouth Park; the Jim Dandy and Travers Stakes at Saratoga likely to decide the title. Right now Shackleford looms a tough customer in the nine furlong Haskell; Animal Kingdom, Ruler on Ice, Stay Thirsty and Brilliant Speed are likely to sort themselves out in the nine furlong Jim Dandy and 10 furlong Travers Stakes.
In the meantime, we can say this was an entertaining Triple Crown, although most observers have labeled the horses involved as the weakest in this decade.
Frankly, I disagree. I think the 2011 crop of 3 year olds are better than last year’s group that had only one really good horse, LOOKIN AT LUCKY. I also believe we have yet to see the best form this crop can produce. I think that because the vast majority of the horses who ran well in this series were lightly raced and remain eligible for improvement as they mature into the late stages of 2011.
Beyond that assertion, which will be revealed or disproved in actual races yet to be run, we will leave the 3 year olds for at least the next month and focus on older horses, turf horses and fillies and mares as they move to center stage from now through the end of July.
