How to Play All 15 Breeders' Cup World Class Races

by Steve Davidowitz | Oct 20 2011

Except for a few pending decisions and defections, most of the horses that will be running in the 15 Breeders' Cup races at Churchill Downs on Friday, Nov. 4 and Saturday, Nov. 5 are already committed to run. In fact, the prospective fields will be announced one week from today in the pre-entry process, with final fields chosen on Monday, Oct. 31.

Fifteen races with world class horses that have done enough to make it to the Breeders' Cup will be an overload for any horseplayer. Moreover, there will be so many wagering pools to play (way too many for me!) - even for someone who loves to bet on the top horses in the world on the greatest two days of racing anywhere in the world. So, what to do...?

Where do you start? You start with a game plan.

The advice I give to myself might not be the same script for you to follow, but at this point and with only 17 days before the first Breeders' Cup race is set to go off...? Well, let's just say it's a good thing for you that I've already initiated a Breeders' Cup game plan...

First, if you read what I wrote a few weeks ago in this space, you know I have been building a notebook with observations from the 40 odd Graded Stakes that were used by primary Breeders' Cup contenders for their final prep races.
 
I saw the poor performance of THE FACTOR for instance in the Ancient Title Stakes at Santa Anita Park and agreed with Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert's assessment that this speedy 3-year-old lost the race when he was unnerved breaking from the inside post. The Factor became unglued when he was hooked through suicide fractions that set the race up for AMBERZOMBI's stretch running victory.

At the same time, I am not as forgiving as Baffert. I did not like one bit that anything could upset such a fast horse to make him so vulnerable and I would expect that even if he does not draw the insider post on Breeders' Cup Day, at least one, maybe two other horses in the $1.5 million-dollar field will challenge The Factor early and could force him to lose his form again.

The only way I will change my perspective on that is if The Factor works so smoothly that Baffert manages to settle this colt down enough so that he willingly lets another rival take the lead to set up a stalking run. An outside post could also help.

That is one example of a note I have in my book on the top horses pointing for the Breeders' Cup. I can only suggest to other horseplayers to go review those prep race tapes; refine your general impressions of who these horses really are and note any inherent strengths and weaknesses.

The next thing to do is to compile a list of five, six or seven of the Breeders' Cup races that most appeal to you because you will need to pare down the menu of races to a playable group. Here are a few suggestions for you to consider:

A.    Play races with horses you already know very well.

B.    Play races that are right up your alley, races you feel comfortable handicapping, such as the Dirt Mile around one turn. Consider: This is a popular one turn distance at Aqueduct, Belmont, Churchill and Arlington Park, while one mile races on other tracks with dirt and synthetic racing surfaces are usually contested around two turns. Or perhaps you feel most comfortable handicapping turf races and/or evaluating 2-year-olds stretching out in distance. There certainly will be a few races in each category for you to focus on.

C.    If you have been following a particular trainer (or at least feel knowledgeable about the way specific trainers prepare their horses for big events) and believe you see positive indicators in a horse or two or three that conform to that trainer's specialty - play their horses. As examples, if you are hip to Todd Pletcher's methods or Baffert's or anyone else from your geographical area or maybe it's just that you've seen a trainer do good work at previous Breeders' Cups - you will do well to focus on those trainer's horses.

D.    If there is a horse or two or three that you have been following during the summer and fall, or maybe you saw a horse make a strong move that went hardly noticed by the racing press, you just may have a longshot worth playing. At the very least you should use this horse (or horses) in some manner on Breeders' Cup day.

Still, armed with those basic principles you probably will not want to play all 15 Breeders' Cup races, which may not be such a bad idea after all.

When it comes to betting on the Breeders' Cup the bottom line is this: A sharpened focus for such a complex menu of high class races has invariably proven to be the best way for me to go, as well as being the shortest way to the cashier's line.

Good luck with your Breeders' Cup bets!

For more on the Breeders' Cup World Championships - including info on the top contenders vying for the Breeders' Cup Classic and Breeders' Cup Ladies' Classic - head over to Bodog Racebook.