Keeneland's Synthetic Polytrack vs. Churchill Downs' Dirt Track
by Steve Davidowitz | Apr 21 2011
The upside down results of the
Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland on Saturday -- a race in which the first four finishers were all longshots -- should instead be viewed as quite form-full. Yes, form-full; particularly if we realize that only a single solitary betting favorite has managed to win one of the 27 Grade-1 stakes races run on
Keeneland's synthetic Polytrack in the past three years.
In other words, we should expect longshots to win important races on the artificial racing surface that Keeneland installed in 2007.
Beyond the fact that BRILLIANT SPEED won the race at 19-1 odds and second place finisher TWINSPIRED was 24-1 odds; third place finisher KING CONGI was 13-1 odds and NEWSDAD, fourth at 17-1 odds, the pace of the race resembled a European-style turf race.
Actually, all four of the above horses previously had shown a preference for turf or synthetic racing surfaces, while having run miserably when given a chance to compete on dirt. That, too, speaks to the ironic form-fullness of this wacky $750,000 stakes masquerading as a Grade-1 test.
Fact is, the true upset regarding the Blue Grass will only occur if any of these Blue Grass horses actually come back to run well in the
137th Kentucky Derby—to be run on traditional dirt at Churchill Downs on May 7.
By contrast, the
$1 million Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park, which was also run on Saturday, did its job as an important Kentucky Derby prep, just as it has in most of the past dozen years.
For one thing, this Arkansas Derby pointed out that ARCHARCHARCH has progressed nicely since he won the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn in February. For another, it validated the improving form of fast closing, second place finisher NEHRO, who looked good running second in the Louisiana Derby last month and looked even better finishing second to Archarcharch at Oaklawn on Saturday.
Beyond those two positive performances, the nine furlong race also exposed THE FACTOR as a difficult horse to support with any conviction on the First Saturday in May.
Failing to wrest the early lead away from J P's GUSTO and being caught in a pocket along the inside on the backstretch, The Factor could not assert his abundant natural speed and faded to seventh place after failing to sustain a wide bid on the final turn.
Given that evidence, The Factor hardly can be viewed as a legit 1-1/4 mile racehorse. Frankly, if he were to go to the Derby, Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert will need a major miracle to get the son of War Front ready to handle similar early pressure in a race that usually has a half dozen horses vying for the lead in the first quarter mile.
I therefore would expect Baffert to decline to run The Factor in the Kentucky Derby and possibly point him for the 1-3/16 miles Preakness at Pimlico on May 21, or perhaps even the prestigious $500,000 Metropolitan Mile Handicap against older horses at Belmont Park on May 30.
As I see The Factor, he is a "miler," pure and simple. To push him into the rough and tumble, 10 furlong Kentucky Derby might seem enticing, but it could prove to be the worst move for this colt's overall development.
Speaking of Bob Baffert, he still has two Derby bullets in his holster: JAYCITO and MIDNIGHT INTRUDER.
Jaycito's Derby status is in doubt, however. He has a lingering hoof problem that has resisted easy treatment. The issue forced Baffert not to enter Jaycito in the $200,000 Lexington Stakes on Saturday at Keeneland. Now, the plan calls for Jaycito to be pointed for the one mile Derby Trial Stakes on opening day at Churchill on April 30. Should the hoof problems continue, Jaycito will be a question mark for the Preakness. And even if the hoof heals quickly, Jaycito will need a prep race, having only run once since the $2 million Breeders' Cup Juvenile last fall.
Baffert's "other" Derby horse, Midnight Interlude, is an intriguing colt who suddenly pushed his way into the Derby picture. His victory in the Santa Anita Derby was only the second victory of his limited career, but it was a sharp performance that improved upon his maiden victory in his prior start at Santa Anita.
Given that display of talent, it would be unwise to dismiss this rapidly maturing son of War Chant on Derby Day. After all, Baffert has been building one of the most remarkable Derby resumes in racing history. Virtually every realistic contender he has brought to Louisville has run strongly.
CAVONNIER, Baffert's first Derby contender finished second by a nose in 1996 to GRINDSTONE; in 1997, Baffert won his first Derby with SILVER CHARM; in'98, he was back in the Derby winner's circle with REAL QUIET, while his INDIAN CHARLIE finished third. In 2002, he won with WAR EMBLEM and last year, LOOKIN AT LUCKY was a most unlucky sixth who endured serious traffic troubles in the Derby, prior to his victory in the Preakness.
As for the status of UNCLE MO, who was undefeated until he finished a disappointing third while apparently suffering an infection in his intestinal tract, trainer Todd Pletcher is "pleased by the colt's progress," but says "he will need perfect days from now to the Derby to make the race."
*****
Added Note: SILVER MEDALLION is the probable favorite in as six horse field slated to contest the Lexington. He also needs to win the race to guarantee a place among the top 20 Graded stakes earners that will determine the final Derby field.
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