Kentucky Derby Betting Preview
by Bodog Racebook | May 6 2011
Now that the post positions for the
Kentucky Derby have been drawn, Bodog takes a look at which contenders have an edge and which will have to overcome a poor draw for the Run for the Roses.
Archarcharch and Decisive Moment have drawn the most favorable post positions, No. 1 and No. 5, respectively, for this year’s Kentucky Derby; 12 winners have started from each post. Archarcharch (10-1), who will be ridden by regular jockey Jon Court, will have the tough job of navigating through early traffic and avoiding getting boxed in – despite the historical edge. Trained by William Fires, the son of Arch has a versatile running style and should not be hindered by an extreme inside post. Also, he has won at Churchill Downs before (his maiden-breaking victory on Nov. 27) and posted a recent 5-furlong bullet timed in 59.40 on April 29.
Decisive Moment, a longer shot at 30-1, will have the advantage of breaking from post 6. But this With Distinction colt has not prevailed against this class of opponents before. His Kentucky Derby berth was all but solidified with a runner-up performance in the rich Gr. 3 Delta Downs Jackpot Stakes in 2010 but his best finish as a 3-year-old was a win in the ungraded Jean Lafitte Stakes on Jan. 14. Trained by Juan Arias, Decisive Moment typically likes to get away quickly; look for him, under jockey Kerwin Clark, to be among the leaders after the break; whether he can maintain his forwardly placed position over 1 ¼ miles is the question.
Other horses with history on their side: Stay Thirsty (post 4), Dialed In (post 8) and Twinspired (post 10).
Soldat and Nehro, breaking from post 17 and post 19, respectively, will be looking to overcome history and be the first to win from either post. Soldat, a front-running son of War Front, will be hindered by the outside post draw; this 12-1 shot, who will be ridden by Alan Garcia and trained by Kiaran McLaughlin, is at his best when he gets the chance to set the pace, a feat that will be difficult when breaking from the outside.
Nehro, a 6-1 shot trained by Steven Asmussen, has a markedly different running style from Soldat: this Mineshaft colt has a solid late kick. He won his maiden-breaking race after breaking from an outside post and making a five-wide move. Jockey Corey Nakatani will be tasked with ensuring his mount stays within striking distance so he can utilize that closing move. Though he is winless in graded stakes this year, Nehro has come in second twice, making him a horse not to be overlooked.
Other horses at a post-position disadvantage: Shackleford (post 14)and Watch Me Go (post 20).
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