Open an Online Betting Account
Online Betting Cash Bonus When You Refer A Friend

Kentucky Derby Post Positions - Location, Location, Location

by Steve Davidowitz | May 5 2011

The post position draw for Saturday’s 137th Kentucky Derby went without major incident or complaint, except for one very important horse: ARCHARCHARCH.

When last seen in action, ‘Archie’ was winning the $1 million Arkansas Derby on Apr. 16 over fast finishing NEHRO.

In the 2-1/2 weeks since that performance, the son of the stoutly bred Arch has trained strongly at Churchill Downs, through rains, through sloppy and drying out tracks and through heavy winds.

All seemed to be falling into place for trainer William ‘Jinx’ Fires, who has been a regular Churchill Downs fixture for nearly 50 years, but had never started a horse in America’s most famous the race. The same good fortune seemed to heading towards Archie’s 50-year-old jockey Jon Court, a top notch, experienced journeyman about to ride in his first Kentucky Derby.

Then came the post draw at Churchill on Wednesday afternoon.

While every trainer in attendance was sweating out the possibility of drawing the dreaded inside post position, that post and #6 were the only two left after 18 others had been settled by luck of a blind draw. COMMA TO THE TOP and ARCHARCHARCH were in fact the only two horses who had yet to get their starting gate assignments.

First to breathe a sigh of relief was trainer Peter Miller when Comma to the Top drew #6, an innocent post by any standard. While Fires acted stoically when he saw his horse get #1, all who know the man can state that his calm demeanour was just a classy act. He was sick inside.

Riding the rail…

All anyone needs to know about how bad post #1 can be for a 20 horse Kentucky Derby, is to recall the troubled trip endured by the Bob Baffert trained Lookin At Lucky in last year’s Derby.

Not only did ‘Lucky’ get bumped hard into the rail leaving the starting gate, he was forced to drop back into a congested group of horses to lose all chance as half the field angled over from various outer post positions to crowd him some more. All they were trying to do is secure an inner position in the cavalry charge run towards the first turn.

Lookin At Lucky was destined to a sixth place finish in last year’s Derby. And, to prove that he could have done much better, Lookin At Lucky won the Preakness stakes at Pimlico two weeks later.

Archarcharch was, as stated coming into this Kentucky Derby in great physical condition. He not only had improved steadily throughout the winter, but his recent training suggested that he was poised to be the horse most likely to win this highly competitive, evenly matched Derby. At the same time, because this field is so closely matched, ‘Archie’ did not have any margin for error.

By drawing post #1, that margin completely disappeared. Post #1 now says he has an added obstacle to overcome beyond the 19 other horses he will meet on Saturday.

To understand why this is so, why it was such a hardship for Lookin At Lucky, you need to see exactly how the two-tiered 20 stall starting gate is set up for the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs.

Imagine you are sitting on Archarcharch in post #1, peering out from your starting stall looking straight ahead down the long Churchill Downs’ homestretch. While that would be instructive, that is not quite what you would see.

Instead of the homestretch, you would only see the inside rail straight in front of you as it curves to the left out of the final turn into the final straightaway. In other words, if you break straight ahead leaving post #1 you would crash into the inner rail unless you were able to angle your horse away from that rail, a difficult thing to do when horses positioned to your right are attempting to angle over to save ground as they charge out of the gate towards the first turn about 5/16 miles away.

The only horse I have seen overcome these issues, also provided the best ride of my lifetime: Bill Shoemaker’s winning ride aboard Ferdinand in the 1986 Derby, a race in which Ferdinand was bounced into the rail more than once and Shoemaker had to take up sharply while standing up in the saddle passing the finish line for the first time. Ferdinand actually was forced back to last place in that race, before he began weaving in and out en route to a most remarkable, historic Derby victory. Shoemaker was 56 years old when he pulled off that trick, the likes of which never have been duplicated.

So, should jockey Jon Court and the 3-year-old Archarcharch get the job done on Saturday, players who liked their chances after the post draw will be entitled to applaud themselves for their loyalty while Court and Fires and Archie will need more than their combined abilities. They will need a minor miracle on horseback and a serious dose of unadulterated magic.

Added Note: While Baffert was worried for most of the post draw that his horse MIDNIGHT INTERLUDE would get stuck with post #1, he was ecstatic when ‘Midnight’ drew post #15. No one should blame him for thinking he now has a chance to turn things around from 2010.

Be a Player. Play the ponies and get your online horse racing bets at Bodog's Racebook.
The Bodog Racebook Articles section is your online horse betting headquarters! Get up to speed with our weekly articles on betting strategies, online horse racing tips and the latest news from around the horse racing world…then head on over to the Bodog Racebook to get all your horse racing odds. See you at the races!

Archive

2011
2010
2009
Looking for our Archive `of Expert Racing Analysis by Steve Davidowitz and Dave Tuley? Click here to find their reviews of the 2010 Breeders' Cup Contenders.  Stay tuned for their analysis of the 2011 Breeders' Cup - coming soon!

Join Team Bodog Now!

Bodog Online Poker & Online Casino & Sportsbook.

Bodog is an online gambling site offering online sports betting, Las Vegas style casino games and online poker with great betting odds, fantastic customer service and fast payouts.

  Antigua and Barbuda Director of Offshore GamingGaming Associates Seal - Click to VerifyYou must be over 18 to play with Bodog.Gambling should be entertaining. Remember that you always risk losing the money you bet so do not spend more than you can afford to lose. If you think you may have a problem, click here.

N6P