Putting the Horse First: Door Opens for Derby's Distance Runners
by Steve Davidowitz | Apr 28 2011
With a shade less than one week until post positions are drawn for the 20 probable starters in the
Kentucky Derby, I have to applaud two trainers who judiciously decided not to run in America's most famous race.
On Tuesday, Apr. 27, Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert took THE FACTOR out of the 137th Kentucky Derby, and Joe Petalino, former assistant to Hall of Famer Jack Van Berg, also decided not to succumb to Derby Fever with J.P.'S GUSTO.
While these two withdrawals opened the door for SHACKLEFORD and TWINSPIRED to get into race via the top 20 on the Graded Stakes earnings' list, applause is due because both realized that neither horse belonged in the 1-1/4 mile race, a race that could have ruined both horses.
The Factor certainly showed enough talent to merit a Run for the Roses. After all, he did score a clear cut wire to wire victory in the 1-1/16 mile Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park on Mar. 19. But his failure to reproduce any semblance of that form when he could not gain the lead in the Arkansas Derby on Apr. 16 reaffirmed Baffert's original opinion that this son of War Front is best suited to shorter races.
Petalino and the owners of J.P.'s Gusto also watched the Arkansas Derby with special interest. When 'J P.' went to the front out of the starting gate but could not hold his form together after 7 furlongs, they knew their Derby dream was over.
Now, the plan for The Factor is to give some consideration to the 1-3/16 mile Preakness Stakes at Pimlico on May 21, but most likely to point for the prestigious Metropolitan Mile against older horses at
Belmont Park on May 30.
The plan for J.P.'s Gusto is to send him to New York to begin training under Mike Hushion for a possible start in the 7 furlong Woody Stephens on the Belmont Stakes undercard on June 11; or, if he needs a rest, to wait for the Dwyer Stakes at 1-1/16 miles on July 2.
Beyond the sensible discretion shown by Petalino and Baffert, the defection of these two horses opens the door to a less stressful pace scenario.
Instead of a surefire, all out speed duel that would sap the energy of any horse within five or six lengths of the prospective front runners, a more reasonable early pace is likely to develop. This will benefit the horses in this Derby that have tactical speed, horses such as UNCLE MO, ARCARCHARCH, PANTS ON FIRE, MUCHO MACHO MAN and DECISIVE MOMENT, a quintet of contenders who are likely to be chasing front running COMMA TO THE TOP, TWINSPIRED and SOLDAT through slightly faster than par early fractions in the first four and six furlongs of this classic 10 furlong race.
Should this turn out to be the actual pace scenario on Derby Day, the deep closers in the field – DIALED IN, MIDNIGHT INTERLUDE, BRILLIANT SPEED, NEHRO and TWICE THE APPEAL – might have too much work to do in the final furlongs to make it to the Kentucky Derby winner's circle.
All of that is conjecture of course—we are still a week away from the post draw which can impact the way the race is to be run and we are nine days and counting away from the call to the post and the popular singing of Stephen Foster's "My Old Kentucky Home."
In the meantime, all the trainers of the 20 horses who will start in this race need to negotiate their way through persistent rains that keep falling on Louisville. They have to keep their horses fit and moving forward. Missed or botched workouts due to uncomfortable track conditions can interfere with plans to have their horses reach peak form on the First Saturday in May. Moreover, all know they will be asking those horses to run 1-1/4 miles, the longest distance any of them will have attempted in their lives to date.
Stay tuned. Things are getting interesting at historic Churchill Downs.
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