Rebel Stakes An Important Testing Ground for Kentucky Derby Horses

by Steve Davidowitz | Mar 17 2011

The 2011 Rebel Stakes is, in fact, a make-or-break race for THE FACTOR, whose two wins to date have broken stopwatches at sprint distances on the lightning fast Santa Anita dirt track. While Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert won this race last year with Lookin At Lucky (a horse that was a proven performer at route distances), The Factor must show that he can at least outrun good 3-year-olds at the 1-1/16 mile Rebel distance to take any further steps towards the 1-1/4 mile Kentucky Derby.

Frankly, unless The Factor scores a dominating wire to wire win in the Rebel, I believe he will only prove that he can set the pace in the longer Kentucky Derby. He is, after all, a confirmed sprinter with a sprinter-miler’s pedigree.

By contrast, the Rebel also should go a long way towards proving whether SWAY AWAY is a bona fide Derby horse. Sway Away certainly is bred to improve at true route distances, but will be trying two turns for the first time in the Rebel after finishing a strong second to The Factor in the San Vicente. Adding more drama to the rematch, jockey Garrett Gomez won the Rebel last year aboard Baffert’s Lookin At Lucky, but after a terrible trip in the Kentucky Derby, Baffert summarily replaced Gomez with his latest protégé Martin Garcia and promptly won the Preakness and Haskell Invitational. Now Baffert is using Garcia aboard The Factor and Gomez will be aboard Sway Away.

Sway Away’s Rebel performance also will help jockey Gomez decide what horse he should ride in the Kentucky Derby. At present, Gomez has his choice between Sway Away and To Honor and Serve, whom he will ride in the Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park, April 3

In addition to the two highly publicized California shippers, the Rebel field is as deep and contentious as any race for 3-year-olds seen this year. Virtually every horse in the field has hinted at Derby talent, but has something to prove.

ARCHARCHARCH won the one mile Southwest stakes at Oaklawn on February 21, but will have to demonstrate that he still is best of the four horses he beat that day: J P’S GUSTO, ELITE ALEX, CALEB’S POSSE and PICO’S PRIDE.

JP’s Gusto was a front running Grade 1 winner last summer at Del Mar and showed a new dimension rallying for second in the Southwest. He is now trained by Joe Petalino, an Oaklawn regular who was Jack Van Berg’s assistant when Van Berg won the 1987 Kentucky Derby and Preakness with Alysheba.

J W BLUE and BLUEGRASS JAM, who finished 1-2 in an Oaklawn allowance race on Jan. 29, are also on the spot, as is ALTERNATION, a two time local allowance winner. DREAMINOFTHEWIN, second to Alienation on Feb. 21, has been battling a quarter crack in recent weeks and must prove he is 100 percent sound for this tough race. Completing the strong field are GLINT and SARATOGA RED. The former showed some potential when third in the 6 furlong Mountain Valley on Mar. 5 in his third career start and the latter is a recent maiden winner trained by Hall of Famer D. Wayne Lukas.

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