Saratoga & Del Mar Odds: Twice the Action Over Two Full Days

by Steve Davidowitz | Aug 25 2011

In upstate New York on Saturday, historic Saratoga Race Course will present the 142nd Travers Stakes; while on Sunday, Del Mar will present the 21st running of the Pacific Classic, which has rapidly developed into one of the top half dozen route races in America – this side of the Breeders' Cup.

At Saratoga, there are four other Graded stakes on the Travers Day card, including the Grade-1 King's Bishop that will feature the return of 2010 Juvenile champion UNCLE MO.

Although Kentucky Derby winner ANIMAL KINGDOM is injured and done for the year, the 10 horses scheduled to compete in the Travers include the Preakness Stakes winner SHACKELFORD, the Haskell winner COIL, and the 1-2 finishers in the Belmont Stakes – RULER ON ICE and STAY THIRSTY.  

This quartet may not have run as impressively as Animal Kingdom when that colt easily won the Kentucky Derby, but they are only a Travers win away from staking out a serious claim to the championship of the 3-year-old division. Likewise, the other half dozen horses who are competing in the Travers field are a win away from scrambling the 3-year-old division even more than we have seen on so many occasions this year.

Fact: Not one 3-year-old male horse in America has won more than one Grade-1 stakes this year and very few have won two Graded stakes in succession.

Shackleford, with three positive performances in the Triple Crown series (and a good try in the Haskell) has the most speed, but may be slightly suspect in the final furlong at 1-1/4 miles. He validated that impression when he won the 1-3/16 mile Preakness by taking over from front running FLASHPOINT at the top of the Pimlico homestretch and he did it again when he spit out the bit after going 1-1/4 miles in the 1-1/2 mile Belmont Stakes.

Still, horses with Shackleford's brand of speed for nine furlongs can be tough to handle in a 10 furlong race if the rest of the field will let him settle into a comfortable stride without applying pressure during the first six furlongs.

While Shackleford must be regarded as a serious contender in the Travers, three of his most accomplished rivals have in fact already beaten him.

Coil did it in the Haskell, while Ruler on Ice and Stay Thirsty both did it in the Belmont Stakes.

Coil literally worked himself into the Travers when Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert sent him out for a snappy four furlongs in 46 seconds on the Saratoga main track Tuesday morning. Until that fast workout Baffert was not happy with the relative deep nature of the Saratoga main track and doubted that Coil would be able to maintain his top form going the full 1-1/4 miles.

"They tightened up the track quite a bit," Baffert said after the work. "I liked what I saw. If (the track) remains like this on Saturday, (Coil) should run well."

As a son of 2001 Travers winner Point Given, Baffert was not worried about Coil's distance breeding. But, he was worried about the lack of seasoning his late blooming colt might be bringing to the task. Remember, Point Given had run in all three Triple Crown races before he earned his Travers trophy.

While Ruler on Ice beat Stay Thirsty in the Belmont Stakes on June 11, it was a close race to the wire and Stay Thirsty seemed to improve another notch when he won the Jim Dandy at Saratoga Aug. 30.

Stay Thirsty also may have an edge on the horse who beat him in the Belmont.
Check that, make it two edges:

* Stay Thirsty loves Saratoga… The Jim Dandy was his second career win on the Saratoga main track and in his only other Saratoga appearance he finished a good second in the Grade-1 Hopeful Stakes last summer.

* Stay Thirsty's sire was Bernardini (who won this race in 2006). So like the aforementioned Coil, Stay Thirsty certainly is bred for Travers success.

Pacific Classic is 'where the Surf Meets the Turf'

Shifting our attention to the Pacific Classic, it is too bad the fine 4-year-old filly BLIND LUCK was not entered in the race, because newly inducted Hall of Fame trainer Jerry Hollendorfer did not think she was training up to her usual high standard. Hollendorfer did not publicly state that, but he is giving his star filly some rest and clocker Bruno DeJulio for www.GradeOneRacing.com thought she was "not as energetic as usual."

Realistically, if my clocker could question Blind Luck's present physical condition when she worked over the track, so could a 24 carat Hall of Fame trainer.

The 11 horse field as it was drawn Wednesday evening for Sunday's big race at Del Mar includes Bob Baffert's Santa Anita Handicap winner GAME ON DUDE; John Sadler's fast and consistent TWIRLING CANDY who has narrowly lost a pair of 10 furlong, Grade-1  races this year to Game On Dude; plus San Diego Handicap winner TRES BORACHOS and a supporting cast that includes Dominion Stakes winner DON CAVALLO shipping in from Woodbine, plus the useful BOURBON BAY and the extreme longshots QUINDICI MAN  and GREAT WARRIOR.

In addition, it would be a mistake to overlook ACCLAMATION and JERANIMO, first and second in the Grade-1 Eddie Read on the Del Mar turf last month; Acclamation in fact, has three straight stakes wins on the turf, including a thoroughly dominating score in the 1-1/4 mile, Grade-1 Charles Whittingham at Hollywood Park.

SETSUKO, who was a close second to Game On Dude in the 'Big Cap at Santa Anita last March also is in this tightly matched field as is STATELY VICTOR, a multiple stakes winner on synthetic tracks as a 3-year old in 2010, who also finished third to Don Cavallo in the Dominion on the Woodbine Polytrack last month.

Stately Victor and Don Cavallo might offer some longshot value in the exotics, given their good synthetic track form at other tracks. But most of all, the key to this 10 furlong race as well as the Travers and most other 1-1/4 mile races at the Grade-1 level is the distance itself.

Indeed! If you study the past performances and review replay tapes and believe you have found a true 10 furlong horse among the contenders in the Travers and you think the same about a Pacific Classic contender, you just might be at the cashier's line – not once, but twice this weekend.

Beyond that you can then attack all the other good races through the weekend at the two best summer tracks in America.

Get all your odds to win the Travers Stakes & the Pacific Classic at Bodog Racebook. Good luck with your bets!