Top Kentucky Derby Contenders: Odds to Win

by Patricia Woo | Apr 26 2010

With 2010 Kentucky Derby favorite Eskendereya out of the Kentucky Derby, Bodog takes a look at five other contenders with the potential to win the Run for the Roses on Saturday, May 1.

5. American Lion is Eoin Harty's Kentucky Derby hopeful, a big son of Tiznow who has chosen the right time to start coming into his own. He won twice as a 2-year-old – including the $100,000 Gr. 3 Hollywood Prevue Stakes on Nov. 21 – but did not find the winner's circle again until the dirt-run $500,000 Gr. 3 Illinois Derby at Hawthorne Park on April 3. He hasn't faced the same level of competition as, say, Lookin at Lucky, but is capable of a gritty performance that should serve him well.

4. Staying under the radar is Todd Pletcher's Rule, a son of Roman Ruler who took three tries to break his maiden. He went on to win four consecutive races, including the $750,000 Gr. 3 Delta Jackpot Stakes at Delta Downs on Dec. 4, which all but assured him of a spot in the Kentucky Derby. He kicked off his 3-year-old campaign with another win, the $225,000 Gr. 3 Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs on Feb. 13, but had his string of wins broken in the $750,000 Gr. 1 Florida Derby on March 20 where he faded in the stretch to third behind fellow Kentucky Derby rival Ice Box. This frontrunner will benefit from a slow pace in the Derby.

3. Awesome Act is Jeremy Noseda's Derby hopeful, a son of Awesome Again and currently 17th on the list of graded stakes earners. He competed exclusively on turf in his 2009 campaign and then made the successful switch to dirt in his 2010 debut, the $250,000 Gr. 3 Gotham Stakes on March 6. He showed he was capable of recovering from a poor break and rallying in the $750,000 Gr. 1 Wood Memorial on April 3, and with the two horses who beat him in that race out of the Derby (though Jackson Bend has an outside chance, needing another defection); Awesome Act could be a surprise factor in the Kentucky Derby.

2. Undefeated as a 3-year-old, Sidney's Candy is a Candy Ride colt trained by John Sadler. He is one of many Derby contenders this year who employ a frontrunning style – he won all three of his races, including the $750,000 Gr. 1 Santa Anita Derby, in this fashion. He defeated Derby favorite Lookin at Lucky in that race and cemented his status as a definite threat. Whether he will be able to cope with the 1 ¼ mile distance is the big question surrounding this colt, but his pedigree suggests he should be more than capable.

1. With Eskendereya out of the Derby due to swelling in his leg, Lookin at Lucky becomes the new favorite. This son of Smart Strike has been atop many top contenders lists since 2009. The Bob Baffert trainee suffered his first loss in the $2M Breeders' Cup Juvenile on Nov. 7 but bounced back in his next two races and won his dirt debut, the $300,000 Gr. 2 Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park on March 13. Another eventful trip in the $750,000 Gr. 1 Santa Anita Derby on April 3 resulted in a third-place finish, but showed off this colt's grittiness and maturity. He is much deserving of his favored status.

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