Turning Our Focus to the 2011 Breeders' Cup

by Bodog Racebook | Sep 8 2011

This year's Breeders' Cup World Championships is returning to Churchill Downs where we last saw BLAME score a narrow victory in the $5 million Breeders' Cup Classic over previously undefeated ZENYATTA. While Zenyatta lost that battle—the only defeat she suffered in her 19 race career—she nevertheless won Horse of the Year on style points.

This year Zenyatta is not around and nether is Blame. Both were retired immediately after their memorable Breeders' Cup Classic battle. But, if we were impressed by a female racehorse winning the 2009 Breeders' Cup classic and just missing in 2010, we might find ourselves admiring the efforts of three talented female racehorses who are poised to challenge for this year's Horse of the Year trophy.

In one corner there is the 6 year old wonder mare from Europe, GOLDIKOVA, who will only be seen in one race on these shores, just as she has in the past three seasons. Yet if Goldikova can win an amazing fourth straight Breeders' Cup Mile, she just might trump the season long performances of two other top female performers, BLIND LUCK and HAVRE DE GRACE.

Whenever any horse, male or female, wins four straight renewals of a world class race – such as the $2 million Breeders' Cup Mile – the feat instantly stamps that horse among the all time greats. To be sure, with her three straight wins in the Breeders' Cup Mile, Goldikova already is close to ensuring such a lofty status for herself right now and a fourth win would catapult her to heights only occupied by a handful of horses in the history of the sport. Horses such as five time Horse of the Year KELSO and three time Horse of the Year FOREGO!
 
Realistically however, even if Goldikova wins a fourth straight Breeders' Cup Mile, the debate over Horse of the Year still will be raging pending Blind Luck and/or Goldikova's bid to emulate Zenyatta's two great performances against male rivals in the 2009 and 2010 Breeders' Cup Classic.

At this point, neither filly is committed to the BREEDERS' CUP Classic, but Havre de Grace's connections seem close to stating their positive intentions. Meanwhile, Blind Luck's status hinges on how well she recovers from exhaustion after she defeated Havre de Grace in their latest gut wrenching race against each other at Delaware Park.

Some observers also wonder if these two star 4 year old fillies might upstage the BREEDERS' CUP Classic by meeting in the Breeders' Cup Ladies Classic, the race these two rivals finished second and third in last year at Churchill. At the very least, their intense rivalry seems on the verge of linking them together forever, just as Affirmed and Alydar became linked in the late 1970's.

Beyond the three female horses who are going to command so much attention, a trio of male horses has emerged as serious Horse of the Year contenders – TIZNOW, FLAT OUT and STAY THIRSTY.

In May, TIZNOW won the Met Mile at Belmont Park and in July, he won the Whitney Handicap at Saratoga, earning excellent Beyer Speed Figures for both victories. Right now, with those stellar performances in his résumé, Tiznow ranks as the pro tem leader in the Horse of the Year straw poll.

FLAT OUT, a marginal Horse of the Year contender who won the Suburban Handicap three months ago and was second to Tizway in the Whitney and second again to Havre de Grace in the Woodward, can only win the Horse of the Year Award if he wins his next race and turns the tables on Tizway in the Breeders' Cup Classic.

But the 3 year old STAY THIRSTY, finally out of the shadow of his more famous stable mate UNCLE MO, is poised to leap frog over the competition with Breeders' Cup Classic win.

A good second in the Belmont Stakes in June, Stay Thirsty won the nine furlong Jim Dandy by four lengths in late July and convincingly won the 10 furlong Travers on Aug. 27 at Saratoga. Any further improvement certainly would make Stay Thirsty a serious upset threat in America's richest race.
   
While all three of these male horses are pointing for the Breeders' Cup Classic on Nov. 5 at Churchill, they might meet first in the Jockey Club Gold Cup at Belmont next month.

At the bottom line, the brass ring is there to be won, but unless a new face pops up with a big performance in the Goodwood Stakes at Santa Anita next month, or a European invader ships in to upset the applecart, the major contenders for Horse of the Year have been identified. Which horse will prevail when the chips are down, is not something we can firmly judge with eight weeks to go.

Get all your horse racing odds and odds to win the Breeders' Cup Classic at Bodog Racebook.