Weekend's Best Bet for Horse Racing is Historic Saratoga
by Steve Davidowitz | Aug 4 2011
The best betting race on Saturday's card figures to be the Grade-1 $750,000
Whitney Handicap, a prestigious nine furlong race for 3-year-olds and up that will be contested for the 84th time on Aug. 6 at
Saratoga Race Course in New York.
Among the other good betting races are the Grade-1 $250,000
Test Stakes at 7 furlongs for 3-year-old fillies. "What defines a good betting race," you ask? Well, it is easily identified by two specific characteristics:
• There are more than a few legit contenders in the race; and
• Several marginal contenders also are in the relatively full field which in turn is likely to offer intriguing exacta and trifecta possibilities.
In the Whitney, for example, there are 11 horses entered who have combined to win 31 stakes races (including 21 Graded stakes races), and among those are four Grade-1 wins. In other words, there are several accomplished horses in this field and if we examine the group from top to bottom, we will see most of the top rated older horses in training.
The Whitney also is a "Breeders' Cup Challenge race," which means that the winner will get an automatic entry ticket to the $5 million
Breeders' Cup Classic at Churchill Downs on November 5, in which all pre-entry and entry fees will be paid and a $10,000 bonus will be tendered to the connections to cover travel expenses.
From the rail out (with weights and jockey assignments), the full Whitney field of 11 is listed below, along with each horse's strongest credential and morning line odds:
# 1: FLAT OUT, (117 pounds, Alex Solis); earned a huge 113 Beyer Speed Figure when he won the 1-1/8 mile Suburban Handicap at 13-1 odds at Belmont, July 2 and is the marginal morning line favorite at 4-1 odds.
# 2: FRIEND OR FOE, (115 lbs., Jose Lezcano); NY bred 4-yr-old has never won a Graded stakes, but earned triple digit Beyer Speed Figures with Alex Solis aboard in his last three races dating back to Oct, 2010. Solis goes elsewhere and Lezcano picks up the mount. Listed at 8-1 odds by Saratoga's official morning line maker.
# 3: MORNING LINE , (118, John R. Velazquez); won the 7 furlong Carter Handicap at Aqueduct in April and tired when sent two turns in the Salvator Mile at Monmouth, July 2. Obviously talented, but must prove he can handle this two turn distance. Listed at 10-1 odds.
# 4: GIANT OAK, (119, Shaun Bridgmohan); won the G-1 Donn Handicap under 118 in Feb., was third, fifth and fifth again under 122 and 123 lbs in last three while forced wide. Usually needs a pace meltdown to be effective and there is plenty of competition for the early lead signed up here. Listed at 5-1 odds.
# 5: TIZWAY, (118, Rajiv Maragh); ran very fast all the way to earn a 113 Beyer while winning the G-1 Metropolitan Mile over Rodman on Memorial Day at Belmont. Also is trying to stretch out and go two turns. Listed at 6-1 odds.
# 6: MISSION IMPAZIBLE, (118, Javier Castellano); returned to the Fair Grounds where he won the 2010 Louisiana Derby to win the New Orleans Handicap over Apart and Giant Oak on Mar. 20, 2011. Listed at 6-1 odds.
# 7: RAIL TRIP, (117, Ramon Dominguez); former Southern Cal star apparently has overcome nagging hoof problems. Ran a strong second to Friend Or Foe in latest at Belmont; has good overall speed and is very game, but further improvement will be needed. Listed at 12-1 odds.
# 8: HEADACHE, (116, Miguel Mena); won an allowance race at Churchill and Grade-3 Cornhusker Handicap over Awesome Gem in last two outings to earn moderate Beyer Speed Figures. Longshot possibility. Listed at 20-1 odds.
# 9: RODMAN, (117, Edgar Prado ); Grade 3 winner in 2010, set a brisk pace in the Suburban, before weakening behind Flat Out in that one turn, G-2 stakes. Likely to be part of the early pace here. Listed at 20-1 odds.
#10: APART, (117, Julien Leparoux); His stable mate Blame won this last year and also took the $5 million BC Classic over Zenyatta. Meanwhile Apart has won five of 13 and $655,000 in his own right and earned 100 Beyer Figs in last three outings. Still, he must improve a few lengths to repeat Blame's 2010 Whitney victory. Listed at 6-1 odds.
#11: DUKE OF MISCHIEF, (117, Joe Bravo); Won the $1 million Charles Town Classic around three turns on Apr. 16 and was a wide 4th in the G-1 Stephen Foster at this distance on June 18 at Churchill Downs. Fits well with these, but it's tough to win from an outer post position in nine furlong races at Saratoga.
Bottom line: The relative weights are tight; the relative talent also leaves little to separate. But the early pace should suit the strongest finishers in this field and the two best stretch runners with good post positions are: #4 Giant Oak and #1 Flat Out.
In the 7 furlong, G-1 Test Stakes, #6 TURBULENT DESCENT turns back in distance from her second place finish to It's Tricky in the one mile Acorn at Belmont June 11 and probably will be the betting favorite for the eighth straight time in her eight race career.
The key upset possibilities include the G-1 winner # 8 HER SMILE and Graded sprint stakes winners # 7 POMEROY'S PISTOL; #9 SALTY STRIKE; as well as the Bob Baffert trained #2 AMERICAN LADY, an allowance winner over older rivals in late June at Hollywood Park who earned strong positive comments on my website for her July workouts at Del Mar.
Both the Whitney and the Test should offer plenty of value on the tote board and they will be televised live at 5:00 PM and 6:00 PM Eastern Time via the NBC Sports Network (the new name for the Versus TV Network).
Get all your online horse racing odds at Bodog Racebook.
