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BREEDERS’ CUP MARATHON
The Top Contenders…
Last year’s winner of this 1-3/4 mile race ELDAAFER and fourth place finisher A. U. MINER are obvious contenders, as is BIRDRUN, who won the G-2, 1-1/2 mile Brooklyn Handicap at Belmont in June, the long distance specialists from Europe MEEZNAH, HARRISON’S CAVE and BRIGNATINE, multiple stakes winner PLEASANT PRINCE, the check collector GIANT OAK and lightly raced, stakes placed CEASE.
How the Race Will Be Run…
BIRDRUN will set the pace from the rail and if able to relax and not have to deal with premature challenges, he could go all the way. CEASE, A.U MINER, the Euros and PLEASANT PRINCE are capable of well timed rallies in a race that is an annual crapshoot.
My Picks to Win…
1-PLEASANT PRINCE (#4), was a sharp factor in good 3 yr old routes last year and came to life in recent routes at Monmouth and Belmont Park. While he never has gone this far, he looks like the classiest horse in the race and he’s a price.
2-BIRDRUN (#1), Billy Mott trainee scored a convincing wire to wire win over his stablemate Drosselmeyer in the 12 furlong Brooklyn and has a front runner’s advantage here.
3-CEASE (#9), finished a good third in the 1--1/4 mile Hawthorne Gold Cup won by Headache Oct 8 and has considerable room for more improvement. Any of the other contenders previously named can win this.
My Longshot…
PLEASANT PRINCE is my top pick and he’s 12-1 in the morning line.
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BREEDERS’ CUP JUVENILE TURF
The Top Contenders…
Basically the entire field has to be given a tumble here, but at the one mile distance on this 7 furlong, tight turning turf course, I tend to downgrade the horses in post positions 10 through 14. (#1 GUNG HO is scratched, #15 TEQUILLA FACTOR is now in the race with that program number but will break from post 14.) See below for how the race will be run and who I think may have a slim edge in this roulette wheel on horseback
How the Race Will Be Run…
MAJESTIC CITY, a southern California stakes synthetic track stakes winner who led to the final yards in the G-1 Breeders’ Futurity on the Keeneland Polytrack Oct 8, sets the pace here, while four horses in outer posts EXCAPER, FINALE, STATE OF PLAY and TEQUILLA FACTOR try to avoid wide trips and press the pace. FANTASTIC SONG, SHKSPEARE SHALIYAH, FARAAJ, WROTE and COALPORT have the five inside posts and may hold a slight edge over the others not named here who also have winning credentials.
My Picks to Win…
1-FANTASTIC SONG (#2), has royal turf breeding and two encouraging turf races, a very good jockey in JJ Castellano and the inside, ground saving post, slim call.
2- SHKSPEARE SHALIYAH (#3), has won two turf races including a G-3 stakes in NY over Fantastic Song and his jockey, Alex Solis has been a solid turf pro for more than 20 years.
3- FINALE (#13), looks the best of the horses stuck outside and good turf rider John Velazquez may be able to work out a trip to stay in the hunt. . .MAJESTIC CITY (#6) has obvious chance to take these all the way, but this is his first try in grass and there are many experienced turf performers and others well bred for the task. Frankly, I see no throwouts in this field and would suggest a good Ouija board.
My Longshot…
Both my top two picks are serious contenders with good form, good posts and good jockeys and FANTASTIC SONG is 20-1 and SHKSPEARE SHALIYAH 15-1 in the official morning line. On the other hand, if FINALE could have switched post positions with either of those two, Finale would have been my top selection.
BREEDERS’ CUP SPRINT
The Top Contenders…
Last year’s winner BIG DRAMA is back, along with last year’s second place finisher HAMAZING DESTINY, as well as a full crew of proven stakes winning sprinters, from top to bottom, most notably FORCE FREEZE, EUROEARS and JACKSON BEND.
How the Race Will Be Run…
EUROEARS will break to the lead from the rail and if he clears GIANT RYAN and BIG DRAMA, he could be gone. If there is a duel, JACKSON BEND and FORCE FREEZE are likely to be the main contenders in the stretch, followed perhaps by AMAZOMBIE.
My Picks to Win…
1-AMAZOMBIE has just the running style I'm looking for in a race that sets up like this. He closed well into 1-FORCE FREEZE (#6), defeated a very good sprinter JERSEY TOWN July 31 at Monmouth in his first American start after shipping in from Dubai. More recently, he was a solid second in the G-1 Vosburgh on a muddy, speed biased Belmont track, Oct 1. Can win this with well judged stalking trip for John R. Velazquez.
2-JACKSON BEND (#5), made a good showing against UNCLE MO in the Kelso Mile after winning a pair of 7 furlong stakes at Saratoga. Strong finisher is two for two at this 6 furlong distance, but that was when he was a 2 year old.
3-HAMAZING DESTINY (#4), has been pointed for this by D. Wayne Lukas, the winningest trainer in BC history and this horse’s last try---a good third in the Phoenix on the Keeneland Poly was a good prep race. BIG DRAMA (#8) and EUROEARS (#1) are speed horses who need to shake loose from one another for either to score.
My Longshot…
Again, my top pick FORCE FREEZE and my third pick HAMAZING DESTINY are both listed at 10-1 in the official morning line.
BREEDERS’ CUP TURF SPRINT
The Top Contenders…
Last year’s winner CHAMBERLAIN BRIDGE is back; so is the 2009 Turf Sprint winner CALIFORNIA FLAG, along with recent stakes winners HAVELOCK, HOOFIT, REGALLY READY, BROKEN DREAMS, CARACORTADO and several longshots with wakeup credentials.
How the Race Will Be Run…
Morning line favorite REGALLY READY and longshot RAPPORT figure to set the pace, while a large and unwieldy pack of contenders try to avoid getting bumped and bothered negotiating the turn that will come up quickly at this 5 furlong distance. CHAMBERLAIN BRIDGE has his own issue to deal with – the extreme outside post.
My Picks to Win…
1-.GREAT ATTACK (#5), Was sharp in turf sprints early in the season and came back from a layoff with a good move in G-3 at 5-1/2 as if he needed the race. The turn back to 5 furls may be what the doctor ordered.
2- HAVELOCK (#10), has excellent record in abbreviated turf sprints and has been working sharply, probably one to beat.
3-HOOFIT (#7), was good in New Zealand before winning both American starts on synthetic tracks. Return to turf seems positive. . .REGALLY READY (#8), won both 5 furlong turf races and prepped for this with a G-1 win at 6 furlongs in Canada; CARACORTADO (#13), turns back in distance from a G-2 Mile win, tough post; CHAMBERLAIN BRIDGE (#14), overcame the inside post last year, must overcome the outside this year.
My Longshot…
I’m a broken record I guess. My top pick in this mad scramble is GREAT ATTACK and he’s listed at 20-1.
BREEDERS’ CUP DIRT MILE
The Top Contenders…
THE FACTOR has front running wins at 6 furlongs, 7 furlongs and 1-1/16 miles; SHACKLEFORD won the Preakness and has trained sharply of late; TRES BORACHOS is a G-2 winner turning back in distance; WILBURN defeated Shackleford in the Indiana Derby; JERSEY TOWN ahs several good races for this; CALEB’S POSSE loves one turn races; so does TRAPPE SHOT.
How the Race Will Be Run…
THE FACTOR goes to the front from the tricky inside post out of the backstretch chute, while SHACKLEFORD, TAPIZAR and TRAPPE SHOT stalk from a few lengths behind as WILBURN settles right behind that trio. Should The Factor get loose and comfortable, the game could be over on the final turn. If he goes faster than he should SHACKLEFORD and WILBURN might fight it out to the end, with late movers CALEB’S POSSE and TRES BORACHOS getting their chances too.
My Picks to Win…
1-SHACKLEFORD (#2), looked to be tailing off when he bombed in the Travers, but his second to WILBURN in the Indiana Derby coupled with sharper recent works over the track say he could turn their tables here.
2-WILBURN (#5), is an improving 3 yr old with considerable upside and he already has beaten Shackelford in the longer Indiana Derby.
3- THE FACTOR (#1)has blazing speed, might go all the way. . .CALEB’S POSSE (#8) and TRES BORACHOS (#4) are serious stakes types with stretch running speed who could benefit from a pace duel.
My Longshot…
TRES BORACHOS, winner of more than $750,000 turns back in distance with good recent workouts as if he is ready to outrun his 30-1 odds.
BREEDERS’ CUP TURF
The Top Contenders…
All five Europeans, SARAFINA, ST NICHOLAS ABBEY, AWAIT THE DAWN, SEA MOON and the former BC Filly and Mare Turf winner MIDDAY tower over the three American based horses. All are proven on the international stage.
How the Race Will Be Run…
The American based BRILLIANT SPEED and STATELY VICTORY seem likely to set and/or press the other’s pace, while the Euros stay ‘covered up’ for as long as possible before launching their strong late rallies.
This 1 1/ 2-mile race will be another long one with not much pace to speak of. With a small nine-horse field, this should be an especially tightly bunched field heading into the stretch.
My Picks to Win…
1-DEAN'S KITTEN is giving me a reason to avoid my usual tendency to stick with the chalky invaders in this 1-SARAFINA, (#2), a 4 yr old French based mare, was a troubled seventh in the Arc de Triomphe Oct. 2 but won three of four other races this year, including two G-1 stakes against males. Hard to fault.
2-SEA MOON (#7), is a rapidly developing British 3 yr old trained by Sir Michael Stoute with high Racing Post Ratings, might take an important step forward here.
3- MIDDAY (#9), Won 2009 F & M Turf at Santa Anita and just missed to SHARED ACCOUNT in that event last year on this course. Deserves a chance to up the ante in this tougher spot. . .ST NICHOLAS ABBEY (#1), was fifth in the Arc with a relatively clean trip; AWAIT THE DAWN (#6) was third behind MIDDAY in latest G-1 English stakes. . .The three American turfers are OK and just one might sneak into the Trifecta.
My Longshot…
SEA MOON is the longest price of the Euros I can endorse and he’s only 4-1.
BREEDERS’ CUP JUVENILE
The Top Contenders…
A terrific race that includes the 1-2 finishers in the Champagne Stakes, UNION RAGS and ALPHA; , the 1-2 finishers in the G-1 Norfolk, CREATIVE CAUSE and DRILL; undefeated HANSEN, Breeders’ Futurity winner DULLAHAN; three time Florida stakes winner FORT LOUDON; a pair of European Group stakes winners CRUSADE and DADDY LONG LEGS; plus a Canadian G-3 stakes winner PROSPECTIVE and several lightly raced, stakes types eligible to improve.
How the Race Will Be Run…
HANSEN , the runaway winner of two Polytrack races at Turfway has the most early speed and probably will be chased by FORT LOUDON while most of the rest will fight for position. Can Hansen go wire to wire? Maybe, but this is a very deep group of promising youngsters.
My Picks to Win…
1- UNION RAGS (#10), impressive winner of the Champagne overcome some traffic and pulled away for a solid score. Should handle the two turns just fine.
2- DRILL flashed considerable promise in the Del Mar Futurity and in all of his workouts. Good post, blinkers off, good effort likely.
3-PROSPECTIVE (#6), has progressed in his the Canadian starts and has worked strongly over this track, chance to upset. . .ALPHA (#9), Won debut nicely and then rallied well after a poor start to get second in Union Rags big win in the Champagne. Can improve; HANSEN (#5), needs to go wire to wire to prove his quality; many others with a chance here, including the Europeans.
My Longshot…
PROSPECTIVE has an improving profile and is 30-1, must use in exotics.
BREEDERS’ CUP MILE
The Top Contenders…
This is the race that GOLDIKOVA will try to make rare history, seeking her fourth BC Mile win when no other horse in BC history has ever won three BC races. The competition includes horses she has beaten in the race in 2009 (COURAGEOUS CAT) and 2010 (GIO PONTI). Both remain serious threats to upset. The same can be said for the European 3 yr old STRONG SUIT and the 5 yr old BYWORD.
How the Race Will Be Run…
SIDNEY’S CANDY will set the pace and be tracked by GET STORMY and COURAGEOUS CAT, while GOLDIKOVA takes a safe inside position for her rally coming out of the final turn as STRONG SUIT and BYWORD try to get the jump on her.
My Picks to Win…
1-STRONG SUIT (#10) has run as fast as Goldikova this year, seems on the improve and can upset if he actually takes a small step forward in this race.
2-GOLDIKOVA (#1) should have no trouble getting into the clear for her patented rally in the upper stretch. A great race mare facing a tougher group this time.
3- BYWORD (#8) has shown plenty of talent in slightly longer Group 1 races in Europe and might prove strongest if he gets in the clear. . .GIO PONTI (#5) looked especially sharp winning the Shadwell Mile with a late burst from between horses and can make the mare run with a similar effort.; COURAGEOUS CAT (#3) is a tough horse when 100 percent healthy and there were conflicting signals in his training this week; JERANIMO (#7) and MR. COMMONS (#4), earned high Beyer Speed Figures running 1-2 in the Oak Tree Mile at Santa Anita, Oct. 8.
My Longshot…
Once again, my top pick, STRONG SUIT is listed at 10-1 in the morning line.
BREEDERS’ CUP CLASSIC
The Top Contenders…
FLAT OUT defeated some of these in the Jockey Club Gold Cup; HAVRE DE GRACE, an accomplished 4 yr old filly beat FLAT OUT two races back; UNCLE MO came back to form in the Kelso Mile, but has never gone this far; GAME ON DUDE won the Santa Anita Handicap and the Goodwood very gamely; SO YOU THINK is a top class Euro who never has run on dirt; STAY THIRSTY is the Travers winner; TO HONOR AND SERVE the Pennsylvania Derby winner; RULER ON ICE the 2011 Belmont Stakes winner; DROSSELMEYER the 2010 Belmont winner.
How the Race Will Be Run…
1-GAME ON DUDE (#8), is a gritty, hard hitting professional 10 furlong horse with the speed to lead and win this. Training superbly, best effort and best ride from Chantal Sutherland needed.
2-FLAT OUT (#2), has rallied consistently in tough Grade-1 stakes but has not finished the deal on a few occasions. Also working strongly here and might prove to be the best of these.
3-STAY THIRSTY (#9), has advanced nicely during the second half of the year and seems also to be a legit 1-1/4 miler. Worked well over the track this week. . .SO YOU THINK (#5) is a top class Euro with no dirt breeding and no dirt experience, wins this if he actually handles the surface; be out of the money if he hates it; UNCLE MO (#12,) has the most natural talent in this field, but is being pushed into this off two one turn races. The odds are against it; HAVRE DE GRACE (#10) has had a strong long campaign and seemed to be showing signs of wear this week. If she is actually is 100 percent, she can win this; HEADACHE (#11), won the Hawthorne Gold Cup as if he belongs with these.
My Picks to Win…
1-GAME ON DUDE (#8), is a gritty, hard hitting professional 10 furlong horse with the speed to lead and win this. Training superbly, best effort and best ride from Chantal Sutherland needed.
2-FLAT OUT (#2), has rallied consistently in tough Grade-1 stakes but has not finished the deal on a few occasions. Also working strongly here and might prove to be the best of these.
3-STAY THIRSTY (#9), has advanced nicely during the second half of the year and seems also to be a legit 1-1/4 miler. Worked well over the track this week. . .SO YOU THINK (#5) is a top class Euro with no dirt breeding and no dirt experience, wins this if he actually handles the surface; be out of the money if he hates it; UNCLE MO (#12,) has the most natural talent in this field, but is being pushed into this off two one turn races. The odds are against it; HAVRE DE GRACE (#10) has had a strong long campaign and seemed to be showing signs of wear this week. If she is actually is 100 percent, she can win this; HEADACHE (#11), won the Hawthorne Gold Cup as if he belongs with these
My Longshot…
RULER ON ICE (#4) is better than commonly rated as he showed in the Belmont Stakes and with other in-the-money finishes in major stakes before and after that. If there is going to be a major surprise, Ruler On Ice just might be the one.
BREEDERS’ CUP MARATHON
The Top Contenders…
A. U. MINER is the 3-1 lukewarm favorite in a wide-open race. BRIGANTIN is the only horse with significant experience as this 1 3/ 4-mile distance or beyond. ELDAAFER won this race last year over the same course at 10-1. BIRDRUN, GIANT OAK and CEASE are also considered top contenders.
How the Race Will Be Run…
With any race this long, the pace is expected to be quite slow with no one jumping out to big lead and tiring themselves out, and with everyone bunched relatively close before everyone waiting to make the big late move. It should be anyone's race at the top of the stretch.
My Picks to Win…
1-BRIGANTIN can certainly get the distance, which is a major question mark for several of the others in here. His main question is transferring his form to the main track, but if trainer Andre Fabre is bringing him here, I have no problem trusting his judgment on that.
2-ELDAAFER won this race last year and I often give past BC winners a pass during the following year as their connections probably won't be as motivated in gearing them up for lesser races after winning in the BC. But it looks like he's rounding into form with his two races in Delaware.
3-A. U. MINER won the 1 1/2-mile Greenwood Cup and gets jockey Calvin Borel in the saddle, though that could be a minus if he gets bet down just due to Borel being on his back.
My Longshot…
HARRISON'S CAVE is 30-1 on the morning line. After finally breaking his maiden on his 10th try, he's put in two good efforts against lesser company, but again the field should be bunch turning for home and I'll take a shot on the improving youngster.
***
BREEDERS’ CUP JUVENILE TURF
The Top Contenders…
FANTASTIC SONG is the 2-1 favorite despite losing as the chalk in the Grade 3 Pilgrim at Belmont on Oct. 2. MAJESTIC CITY comes in off back-to-back runner-up finishes in the Del Mar Futurity on Sept. 7 and Breeders' Futurity at Keeneland on Oct. 8. FINALE won the Grade 3 Summer Stakes as the heavy favorite at Woodbine on Sept. 17. CASPAR NETSCHER invades with two Group wins in Great Britain, while ANIMAL SPIRITS was the upset winner of the Grade 3 Bourbon Stakes on Oct. 9.
How the Race Will Be Run…
There is quite a bit of speed with FARRAAJ.
My Picks to Win…
1-LUCKY CHAPPY had just one minor stakes win after breaking his maiden in Great Britain and finished third in his U.S. Debut in the Grade 3 Bourbon at Keeneland, but I see an improving young horse that will be running late (like he did in the Bourbon) and can pull the upset if he gets a clean trip.
2-FINALE has won three straight races, all since switching to the turf, and will be tough on or near the lead.
3-ANIMAL SPIRITS will likely be back in the pack with LUCKY CHAPPY and it could come down to who gets first run on the leaders. A duplicate of his Bourbon win could put him in the winner's circle.
My Longshot…
TEQUILA FACTOR draws in form the also-eligible list after the scratch of GUNG HO. He has been racing at Arlington, Louisiana Downs, and Retama and looks to be on the improve.
BREEDERS’ CUP SPRINT
The Top Contenders…
BIG DRAMA is the defending champ and he's 2-for-2 in a short campaign this year. JACKSON BEND won two straight races before being second to Uncle Mo (who is running in the Classic) in the Grade 2 Kelso at Belmont. EUROEARS wired the field in the Grade 1 Bing Crosby at Del Mar on July 31 but had trouble in his next start in the Grade 1 Vosburgh at Belmont. GIANT RYAN has won six straight races, including the Grade 1 Vosburgh.
How the Race Will Be Run…
As to be expected in the Sprint, there is a ton of speed here with GIANT RYAN, FORCE FREEZE and BIG DRAMA expected to set the pace. A lot of people just look for speed in sprints, but closers come through quite often even as these shorter distances.
My Picks to Win…
1-AMAZOMBIE has just the running style I'm looking for in a race that sets up like this. He closed well into fast fractions in his two most recent victories: the Grade 3 Los Angeles Handicap at Hollywood Park on May 30 and the Grade 1 Ancient Title at Santa Anita on Oct. 8.
2-BIG DRAMA again fits what I said in the Marathon about Eldafaar with a light campaign after winning a BC race. The connections were clearly taking it slow to lead up to him trying to defend his title and he's the most likely winner (though I like the price better on my top choice).
3-GIANT RYAN is hard to ignore. He'll be prominent early and is good enough to stick around no matter how fast he (or someone else) sets the fractions.
My Longshot…
AIKENITE is another potential closer. If AMAZOMBIE doesn't make his late move as expected, it could be AIKENITE being the one to pick up the pieces.
BREEDERS’ CUP TURF SPRINT
The Top Contenders…
REGALLY READY won the Grade 1 Nearctic at Woodbine on Oct. 16 to earn favoritism here are 3-1, but he's 2-for-2 in sprints on this turf course. HAVELOCK won the Grade 3 Woodford at Keeneland on Oct. 8. CARACOTADO won the Grade 2 Del Mar Mile, though as the name says that was at a mile and he shortens up for the BC Turf Sprint. CHAMBERLAIN BRIDGE is the defending champ.
How the Race Will Be Run…
This should again be a cavalry charge for the lead in this 5-furlong race, and like I said in the Sprint, I'm not afraid to look for a closer who will enjoy those fast fractions.
My Picks to Win…
1-CALIFORNIA FLAG isn't the defending champ but he did win this race at his home track of Santa Anita in 2009. But what I said above about past BC winners and how that becomes the goal of the owners/trainers still applies and it looks like he's rounding into form with a win in the Grade 3 Morvich last time out at Santa Anita, the same race he won prior to winning this race two years ago.
2-REGALLY READY, as stated above, is a horse for the course with a 2-for-2 lifetime mark at this track and at this distance. He should loom large throughout.
3-HAVELOCK is a closer, even at this short distance, and might have been my top choice if drawn inside of CALIFORNIA FLAG, who I think gets the jump on him.
My Longshot…
HOOFIT didn't do much in his native New Zealand with his biggest win being a minor stakes, but he's blossomed since moving to the states with an allowance win and then an 11-1 upset of the Grade 3 Phoenix at Keeneland on Oct. 7. Another leap forward could pull the shocker here.
BREEDERS’ CUP DIRT MILE
The Top Contenders…
Yet another lukewarm favorite with TRAPPE SHOT at 3-1 off two losses after winning a minor stakes and the Grade 2 True North at Belmont Park. THE FACTOR has three graded stakes to his credit this year, while SHACKLEFORD is best known for winning the Preakness, the middle jewel of the Triple Crown. WILBURN has three straight wins capped by the Indiana Derby at Hoosier Downs on Oct. 1.
How the Race Will Be Run…
THE FACTOR, SHACKLEFORD, TAPIZAR and others should ensure a fast pace. Plenty of others have flashed speed from time to time, so it's hard to say exactly who will be out front, but pretty sure it will be torrid. The question is finding the horse that might be changing tactics and can closer into those fractions.
My Picks to Win…
1-IRREFUTABLE looks like that horse to me. He made a nice run to finish second in the Grade 1 Ancient Title last time out at Santa Anita after being a front-runner most of his career. Since he didn't get up for the win, that helps our price here as he's 12-1 on the morning line. It should also be pointed out that – while I'm not a Beyer Speed Figure guy – he did earn his career-high BSF of 105 in his only race over this track.
2-THE FACTOR is certainly capable of wiring this field, but I'm hoping he finishes on the bottom of my Bob Baffert exacta as he'll be the much shorter price.
3-CALEB'S POSSE has been a closer his whole career and should be running late. Others are better horses but I like this one's chances of being there at the end.
My Longshot…
TAPIZAR is one of those speed horses that I expect will be dropping back to the pack, but if you're looking for a speedster that might get ignored by the other contenders and be able to get the lone lead and slow things down, this could be the one.
BREEDERS’ CUP TURF
The Top Contenders…
The top contenders: Filly SARAFINA invades from France with three Group wins before faltering in the Arc de Triomphe last time out. AWAIT THE DAWN fits the same profile with three Group wins before running third in the Group 1 Juddmonte International Stakes at York. MIDDAY finished second in the BC Filly & Mare Turf last year and has another three Group wins this year. SEA MOON and ST NICHOLAS ABBEY also invade with impressive resumes in a race that is usually dominated by foreign horses.
How the Race Will Be Run…
This 1 1/ 2-mile race will be another long one with not much pace to speak of. With a small nine-horse field, this should be an especially tightly bunched field heading into the stretch.
My Picks to Win…
1-DEAN'S KITTEN is giving me a reason to avoid my usual tendency to stick with the chalky invaders in this race. He hasn't won since May at Lone Star Park, but he's been very consistent with always being close at the wire and he's on the improve.
2-MIDDAY is the real deal as she's always competitive as well with 19 in-the-money finishes in 22 career starts.
3-SARAFINA is also certain to be in the mix but we could say that about any of these Europeans in this spot.
My Longshot…
BRILLIANT SPEED was on the way to a decent career on the turf when he was entered in the Grade 1 Blue Grass at Keeneland and won it at 19-1. That started a run of dirt races with worse finishes in the Kentucky Derby, Belmont (though a third-place finish showed he could go longer distances) and Jim Dandy. He's gone back to turf and excelled with a win in the Grade 3 Saranac at Saratoga on Sept. 4 and a runner-up finish in the Grade 1 Jamaica at Belmont on Oct. 8. I might be the only one, but I wouldn't be shocked if he keeps improving and pulls the upset.
BREEDERS’ CUP JUVENILE
The Top Contenders…
UNION RAGS is 3-for-3 with two graded stakes wins, including the Grade 1 Champagne at Belmont on Oct. 8. He's also the 2012 Kentucky Derby future-book favorite. CREATIVE CAUSE won the Grade 1 Norfolk at Santa Anita on Oct. 1 and is 3-for 4. DRILL won the Del Mar Futurity on Sept. 7, the only race lost by CREATIVE CAUSE. DULLAHAN comes in off winning the Grade 1 Breeders' Futurity at Keeneland on Oct. 8.
How the Race Will Be Run…
HANSEN has never been headed in two career starts, so I expect him to go to the lead. Several others have at least tactical speed, so the pace should be brisk if not blistering. Some of these young horses that inherit leads by default when dominating lesser competition will likely fall back and stalk the leaders.
My Picks to Win…
1-DULLAHAN closed from the clouds in his Breeders' Futurity victory. I don't expect him to be that far back again, but Kent Desormeaux should be able to put him anywhere he wants from his No. 2 post to set up his late run.
2-UNION RAGS looks like a monster, but he's still a youngster I can't back him at such a short price (of course, you also will note I couldn't leave him off the board either).
3-CREATIVE CAUSE rebounded convincingly from his only loss and looms big here.
My Longshot…
FORT LOUDON would be a shock for a lot of people – maybe even more than my Turf pick – but I see an improving 2-year-old with four straight wins at Calder. True, the competition hasn't been as strong as others have faced, but 2-year-olds can improve quickly and another leap by this one could catch everyone by surprise.
BREEDERS’ CUP MILE
The Top Contenders…
The top contenders: GOLDIKOVA is the 7-5 morning-line favorite and is going for her third straight BC Mile victory. GIO PONTI is the second choice and was second to GOLDIKOVA in this race last year. If these two runs to their potential, they probably do that again.
How the Race Will Be Run…
COURAGEOUS CAT GET STORM and SIDNEY'S CANDY probably duel for the lead here with everyone else settling in. All eyes will be on GOLDIKOVA and the key to beating her will be getting the jump on her (and that rarely helps anyway).
My Picks to Win…
1-BYWORD. Yes, I'm going against GOLDIKOVA anyway, and hope I get close to the 12-1 morning-line price. BYWORD comes into this race off two wins in France. He did actually face GOLDIKOVA in May 2010 and only lost by a half-length. GOLDIKOVA has lost three times this year, and I'm hoping BYWORD adds to that.
2-GOLDIKOVA has to be put here if not on top. The last two years she hasn't finished a race worse than second.
3-TURALLURE has won two straight races, including a big come-from-behind victory in the Grade 1 Woodbine Mile on Sept. 18. I'm expecting he'll be on the outside of the rest of the closers down the stretch. He's also never been out of the money in four starts on Churchill's turf course.
My Longshot…
SIDNEY'S CANDY gets my nod here (though almost reversed with TURALLURE). SIDNEY'S CANDY is the most likely in my eyes to be the one to get the lead and not give it up.
BREEDERS’ CUP CLASSIC
The Top Contenders…
UNCLE MO is the 5-2 morning-line favorite, but there are concerns about him getting the 1 1/ 4-mile distance. HAVRE DE GRACE is the super filly who has won 5-for-6 races this year, including a win against the boys in the Grade 1 Woodward at Saratoga on Oct. 3. FLAT OUT was second to her in the Woodward and has two graded stakes to his credit. SO YOU THINK has four Group victories in Ireland and Great Britain. GAME ON DUDE won the Grade 1 Goodwood at Santa Anita on Oct. 1. Not the greatest field ever assembled but solid.
How the Race Will Be Run…
Several have early speed, so it'll be interesting to see who goes to the lead: GAME ON DUDE, STAY THIRSTY, UNCLE MO and TO HONOR AND SERVE being the most likely candidates. Regardless, it should be an honest pace but nothing out of the ordinary. FLAT OUT and HAVRE DE GRACE should be in that second slight with everyone having a chance to run their race. Let the best horse win.
My Picks to Win…
1-TO HONOR AND SERVE, like UNCLE MO, was an early Kentucky Derby future-book favorite. The latter is getting most of the attention for being a great story for returning to the track, but TO HONOR AND SERVE has a similar resume and has actually shown more in my opinion with back-to-back wins at 1 1/8 miles. He has a great chance to steal the race and steal the headlines at 12-1.
2-SO YOU THINK can certainly get the distance and then some, but probably back to best distance here and shouldn't have any problem transferring form from turf to dirt..
3-HAVRE DE GRACE has been stellar and certainly deserves a shot to win Horse of the Year, but I think she's overmatched against this higher-quality field.
My Longshot…
STAY THIRSTY peaked after the Triple Crown series with wins in the Grade 2 Jim Dandy and Grade 1 Travers at Saratoga. He finished third in his last outing, the Grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup, but I think that just helped maintain his odds at 12-1 on the morning line – a victory there might have had him in the low single digits, so I believe there's value here.
